Monday, June 21, 2010

Prospects Bleak for Africa

Well, it's been a rough couple of days for African teams at the World Cup and heading into the last game of the group stage there seems to be little chance for most of the African teams to stay alive and progress to the knockout stage.  All hope is not lost though and I will hold on to every last strand of that hope as long as there is a mathematical equation that leads to  advancement. To kind of give you an idea of what we are looking at, here is a team-by-team break down of what are the chances and what has to happen for any of the African teams to move on to the next stage in the most-watched sports event in the world. What you need to know about the scenarios that follow is that only the top 2 teams in each group will advance.



South Africa
Here is a prime example of a team that is mathematically alive but in reality will need a miracle. They currently sit 3 points behind both Mexico and Uruguay with a game against dysfunctional France upcoming.  Basically they need to get the 3 points for a win (and win by at least 2 goals) and then have either Mexico or Uruguay win the other game by a couple goals. I honestly can't see this happening because Mexico and Uruguay know they just need a draw to both advance so I'd be surprised if their game ends in anything other than a 0-0 tie sending them both through and South Africa and Mexico packing.

Nigeria
Here is a squad that has a legitimate chance. Yes they need to win and get help from another game but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Basically they need to beat South Korea and hope that Argentina beat Greece. If those two things don't happen, then it's over for the Super Eagles. Can it happen? Absolutely. Nigeria can beat South Korea if they bring their A-game, but we also have to hope that Argentina doesn't take it easy on Greece just because they are in first place and may not have a lot to play for.

Algeria
The Desert Foxes are up against the Americans and it's not a secret that I normally cheer against my friends to the south when it comes to these kind of sporting events. I still love you Yankees, it's just that you win everything and seem to run the world so that's my reason! So mathematically, there is a way that Algeria could advance and knock out both the U.S. and England (can you imagine that?!?) with just a draw and Slovenia beating England, but really, Algeria needs a win. I believe they can pull off the improbable but it for sure is unlikely. My gut tells me that the U.S. will rise to the occasion and triumph by at least 2 goals.

Ghana
For a team that is leading their group at the moment, The Black Stars are actually still in a rather precarious position. The reason for that is that they only have a 1 point cushion on both Germany and Serbia and are playing against the tough Germans in the last game. Ghana could actually progress with any result in their game but realistically they need to get at least one point, that would put them through for sure. Can they possibly beat the Germans and advance at the same time as eliminating one of the world's powerhouses? Sure they can, but it won't be easy.

Cameroon
Cameroon is unfortunately already eliminated. They played well against Japan and Denmark but just fell short both times and are playing their last game just for pride. It's too bad really because this squad has a lot of talent and if they got going at the right time could definitely have done some damage.

Ivory Coast
Another team here that is only barely still alive in some abstract, mathematical equation that is unbelievably unlikely. Because Portugal thrashed Korea DPR today 7-0, the Elephants are behind the 8-ball. So, here's what has to happen: Ivory Coast has to beat Korea DPR while Brazil needs to beat Portugal. That part seems reasonable right? Well, that would leave Ivory Coast and Portugal both with 4 points and only one can advance. So, the tie-break would go to goal difference. What that means is that whoever has the best difference between goals for and goals against would move on. Right now Portugal is ahead in that respect with a difference of +7, while Ivory Coast is sitting at -2. You see where I'm going with this now? The results we would need to see Ivory Coast through would have to be something like Brazil beating Portugal 4-0 and Ivory Coast beating Korea DPR 6-0. Could it happen? I suppose, but I won't be holding my breath.

So there you have it. To summarize all that, if somehow both Ghana and Nigeria were able to advance to the next round I would be ecstatic. Either way, it will be fun to watch. Enjoy the games everyone!

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